As Ukraine’s position deteriorates, its European allies are gambling with a confrontation they cannot control.
Europe’s strategy toward Russia rests on a contradiction. Its governments speak as though they are directing the confrontation, yet they lack the military power, industrial capacity and intelligence infrastructure required to sustain it independently. Europe can escalate, but it cannot dominate the escalation. It can create obligations for Washington, but it cannot replace American power.
This dependency has produced a dangerous inversion of the transatlantic relationship. The European vassals are attempting to maneuver the American master into a war it may no longer want. Their objective is not necessarily a deliberate NATO-Russia conflict. It is to generate enough pressure, incidents and political commitments that Washington eventually finds withdrawal more dangerous than intervention.
Ukraine’s deteriorating position makes this strategy increasingly urgent. Russian forces continue to advance, Kyiv’s air defenses are under severe pressure, promised European financing remains uncertain and the Ukrainian state is showing signs of internal strain. The closer Ukraine moves toward military exhaustion, the greater the temptation to widen the conflict beyond Ukraine itself.
Escalation as a Substitute for Strategy
Kyiv’s response to its worsening position has been to threaten escalation. Zelensky has urged international airlines to reconsider flights into Russian airspace, presenting Russian airports as increasingly unsafe. Ukraine has simultaneously continued its long-range campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and attempted large drone attacks on Moscow.
Such operations cannot reverse the balance on the ground. Their value is political rather than military. They demonstrate that Ukraine can still impose costs on Russia, disrupt economic activity and create risks that extend beyond the battlefield.
But they also invite retaliation. Moscow increasingly describes attacks on civilian transport, energy infrastructure and commercial shipping as terrorism or piracy. Putin has left little ambiguity that Russia possesses the means to expand its target list if it concludes that the Ukrainian leadership is directly threatening Russian civilian life.
Escalation has therefore become a substitute for a viable Ukrainian war strategy. Unable to recover the initiative conventionally, Kyiv must create wider consequences for Russia - and wider obligations for its Western sponsors.
Europe Expands the Arena
European governments are reinforcing this approach.
Germany responded to the alleged explosive-laden drone incident near Leipzig Airport by intensifying diplomatic pressure on Russia. Poland has attributed a fire at a facility connected to Ukrainian drone production to Russian sabotage. European Commission officials have invoked the language of state-sponsored terrorism, although the publicly presented evidence surrounding individual incidents remains limited.
The political direction is clear. Ambiguous security incidents are being incorporated into a broader narrative of Russian hybrid war against Europe. Once accepted, that narrative transforms continued European escalation from a policy choice into an act of collective defense.
Norway’s seizure of the Russian-owned Professor Molchanov in Svalbard extends the confrontation into another domain. The seizure followed a court order enforcing a $4.22 billion arbitral award obtained by Ukraine’s Naftogaz over assets expropriated in Crimea. It has a legal basis, but it also establishes a precedent for targeting Russian state property across Western jurisdictions. Moscow has predictably condemned the action and threatened legal and political retaliation.
Any one of these measures can be presented as limited and proportionate. Their cumulative effect is different. Diplomatic expulsions, sabotage accusations, asset confiscations, attacks on energy facilities and pressure on Russian shipping gradually remove the boundaries that once contained the conflict geographically.
Europe is not merely supporting Ukraine. It is constructing additional points of contact through which the war can spread.
Join The Duran Community
Subscribe and Support The Duran!
Washington Begins to Step Back
The difficulty for Europe is that Washington appears increasingly reluctant to accept the consequences.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to blame Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure for contributing to higher global fuel prices represents an important shift. For years, Washington treated Ukrainian operations as part of a shared strategic campaign while maintaining formal distance from the decisions themselves. Bessent has now begun assigning responsibility to Kyiv for their economic consequences.
This is the language of a patron preparing political separation from its proxy.
Ukraine’s energy campaign depends heavily on Western intelligence, surveillance and communications infrastructure. Yet when the resulting disruption reaches American consumers, Washington can describe the attacks as a Ukrainian choice. The United States retains the operational benefits while transferring the political liability.
Other signals point in the same direction. Proposals for Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors under license cannot solve its immediate air-defense shortage. Production facilities would require years, specialized components and substantial investment. Europe’s promised financial support also remains constrained by fiscal pressure, political divisions and uncertainty over the use of frozen Russian assets.
Washington knows that Europe cannot replace American support. This gives the United States enormous leverage over its allies—but it also gives European governments a motive to create situations in which that support becomes unavoidable.
The State Begins to Fracture
Ukraine’s internal institutions are meanwhile showing the effects of prolonged strategic exhaustion.
The armed confrontation in Kyiv between officers of the SBU and military intelligence service HUR reportedly followed an operation involving a Russian national fighting under Ukrainian supervision. Several officers were injured, prompting Zelensky to condemn the incident and dismiss a senior security official.
The precise circumstances remain contested. The larger significance does not. When rival security institutions exchange gunfire in the capital during wartime, the state’s internal balance is under pressure.
Scarcity intensifies institutional competition. Military setbacks create political blame. Intelligence agencies accumulate autonomous networks, armed personnel and economic interests. As confidence in eventual victory declines, factions begin positioning themselves for the political order that follows.
This is why Ukraine’s deterioration is so dangerous for Europe. A weakening Ukrainian state does not necessarily produce compromise. It can instead produce increasingly desperate attempts to internationalize the conflict before the military and political structure begins to break apart.
Europe’s leaders understand that they cannot defeat Russia without the United States. They also understand that Washington’s priorities are changing. Their remaining leverage lies in creating a chain of confrontations that makes American disengagement appear impossible.
The gamble is that Washington will intervene before Europe is forced to face the consequences of its own policies. The danger is that Russia may respond before Washington decides to restrain its allies.
Vassals rarely control the master. But they can sometimes create a crisis from which the master cannot escape.
Please share with your friends, leave a comment, and subscribe!
Thank You for Supporting The Duran!
thank you for an interesting post
One problem is that Europe could not fight Russia with the United States either. They simply do not have the combat forces or equipment that would be needed to push Russia out of Ukraine. This thinking is an extension of the delusional hubris that led Europe and the U.S. to grossly miscalculate in the first place.