Make Sense of the Madness

A Closer Look at the Pressures Independent of Trump’s Mental State Fueling U.S. Foreign Policy Turbulence.

Jon Kurpis is an elected official, writer, and entrepreneur dedicated to advocating for everyday citizens. Known for his independent mindset and principled approach, Kurpis is respected for holding those in power accountable. His background in government, policy, and geopolitics makes him a trusted voice on complex political and cultural matters. He is a Guest Contributor to The Duran Daily. For more his writing visit his account on Substack (kurpis.substack.com).

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When examining the evolution of contemporary geopolitics and world affairs, it is evident that the global order is undergoing a profound transformation. Most notably, there is a visible shift from a unipolar system toward a more multipolar structure. This transition is unfolding in real time, without a clear historical precedent that offers direct guidance or comparable experience.

As it stands, the war in Ukraine continues, tensions involving Iran have escalated to a pre-nuclear level, and the United States has adopted an increasingly confrontational tone across the Western Hemisphere. In many ways, the current posture is indicative of an unipolar power struggling to adjust, reacting forcefully to the erosion of its position rather than adapting rationally to a changing global balance.

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At present, the shift from unipolarity to multipolarity has grown more unstable as a result of President Donald Trump’s social media behavior and rhetoric. For instance, on Easter Sunday 2026, President Trump posted on Truth Social that:

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

On April 7th, Trump posted:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will…47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end.”

In addition to this, President Trump referred to the Pope as “weak” and continued to direct sharp criticism at multiple countries and leaders. Coupled with the inexplicable decision to support Israel with their surprise decapitation strike on Iran, this rhetoric has led many analysts to question his mental condition. Some have characterized his actions as those of a leader experiencing cognitive collapse or behaving in a King Lear like fashion.

This article will examine that viewpoint and offer a cautionary explanation as to why it does not fully account for the current crisis.

Personality
The starting point in any serious discussion of Donald Trump is acknowledging that his behavior has consistently been viewed as extreme, particularly in the context of his social media activity. This pattern is not new and aligns with a well-documented history of provocative and unrestrained communication. His rhetoric and public persona have long been defined by exaggeration, threats, and unpredictability. Below are a sampling of posts from Donald Trump that date back to 2012.

“It makes me feel so good to hit “sleazebags” back -- much better than seeing a psychiatrist (which I never have!)” - Nov 19, 2012

“If you are lucky enough to catch a knockout assaulter before getting slugged, and you carry a gun, shoot the bastard (teach them a lesson)!” - Nov 21, 2013

“Every time I speak of the haters and losers I do so with great love and affection. They cannot help the fact that they were born fucked up!” - Sep 28, 2014

“North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!” - Jan 2, 2018

When impartially reviewing Donald Trump’s recent posts and comparing them to his online statements extending back well over a decade ago, it is difficult to identify a fundamental change in tone or style. While those earlier statements were often viewed as reckless, unrefined, and unpresidential, the issue here is not whether Trump meets a traditional standard of presidential conduct. That question has been settled. He doesn’t.

The more relevant question is whether there is a clear and significant departure from his established pattern of behavior, and whether any such shift can reasonably be attributed to a cognitive collapse. Based on his long record of rhetoric and an unorthodox communication style, President Trump’s current behavior appears remarkably consistent with what he has demonstrated in the past.

In that sense, what we are observing may be less about a sudden change and more about a familiar pattern playing out under heightened pressure. It reflects a continuation of his longstanding erratic approach, rather than a distinct break from it.

Trump’s Abilities & Schedule
Another aspect that does not align with the idea of a full cognitive collapse is President Trump’s pace and level of activity. He continues to operate on a schedule that would be difficult for anyone to maintain never mind a 79-year-old allegedly suffering from a debilitating cognitive collapse.

And in cases where the leader of a nation does face such a decline, the administration goes into protection mode and enacts policies to limit exposure, control settings, and avoid any unscripted moments. By contrast, President Trump has maintained a demanding routine, engages with world leaders, and is permitted to take open-ended questions in hostile media environments.

While President Trump clearly demonstrates signs of aging, such as fatigue, they are not particularly unusual or sufficient to explain what we are seeing. Overall, his level and range of activities does not support the idea of a severe cognitive breakdown.

Joe Kent Resignation Letter
One of the strongest indicators that President Trump is not experiencing a full cognitive collapse is the resignation letter from former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent. For anyone unfamiliar with Kent, he is widely seen as principled, highly intelligent and willing to speak honestly, even at personal cost. His resignation was intended to expose serious failures within the administration and he went through with it knowing it would destroy his career and place him at odds with President Trump and his supporters.

Kent’s letter is sharply critical and argues that President Trump was misled by Israeli officials, that the United States was drawn into a war it should not be in, and that the intelligence did not support the mission. However, what stands out is what the letter does not say. At no point does Kent suggest that President Trump is mentally unfit, impaired, or incapable of serving. Instead, the criticism is directed at judgment and decision making, not capacity.

Equally important is the audience. The letter is addressed directly to Trump and the language is deliberate and measured, written with the expectation that the president himself would read it and potentially reconsider his course. This also suggests Kent believed Trump was capable of understanding, responding, and fulfilling the roles and obligations of his position.

Kent wrote:
“Early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined your America First platform and sowed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran. This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States, and that should you strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory. This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women. We cannot make this mistake again.”

“I pray that you will reflect upon what we are doing in Iran, and who we are doing it for. The time for bold action is now. You can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation, or you can allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos. You hold the cards.”

Taken together, the tone, content, and intent of the letter point to a belief that President Trump remains capable, even if, in Kent’s view, he is making serious mistakes. If there were genuine concerns about a cognitive collapse, it is difficult to imagine that such a central issue would be entirely absent. Instead, the letter reinforces the idea that the problem lies elsewhere, not in an inability to function, but in how decisions are being made.

Proper Diagnosis
It must also be emphasized that any assessment of President Trump’s cognitive health is inherently limited without a formal, in-person medical evaluation. Not even a licensed doctor can make a definitive diagnosis based on public behavior alone. While certain actions may be interpreted as signs of decline, they can just as easily be explained by other factors. An obvious possibility is Trump’s documented sleep issues. As recently as April 24, 2026, The Independent ran an article titled “Trump’s frantic posts on Truth Social show just how little he has slept.” Sleep deprivation, especially when combined with intense stress, can produce many of the same symptoms associated with cognitive decline. For that reason alone, attempting to explain this complex situation through a single, unverified mental health lens is not only inadequate, but risks leading to incorrect conclusions.

So What’s Going On?
While age-related decline may certainly be playing some role in what we are seeing from President Trump, it is nowhere near enough to explain everything that is happening. To properly assess the situation, we have to go deeper and peel back all the layers. Looking at this as simply an elderly man who experienced a cognitive collapse does not tell the full story and may not even be accurate.

The reality is that President Trump has a long record of making aggressive and unconventional statements and decisions. The difference now is that he is operating in a far more constrained environment, one that he helped create and cannot easily control. As a result, he is relying on the same approach he always has, escalating, taking risks, and pushing boundaries in the hope that something works in his favor.

Multiple Dynamics At Play
Upon closer inspection, it is evident that the path to this moment has been driven by an intricate set of factors that extend well beyond Trump’s mental condition

The first dynamic to consider is that there are individuals within Trump’s administration who understand his limitations and are able to use them in ways that may not align with the interests of either the president or the public. Information can be shaped, withheld, or presented selectively to influence decisions. In that context, any perceived weakness or personality trait will be leveraged to advance specific policies, particularly those that favor a more interventionist approach.

There is also the broader role of the military and the defense establishment. While there are certainly voices that advocate for restraint, many key decision makers hold a far more aggressive outlook. These perspectives often shape the options and information presented to leadership.

Even figures who are viewed as measured, such as General Caine, are not entirely free from an interventionist mindset. While General Caine is alleged to have prevented Trump from invoking the nuclear codes against Iran (more on that below), he also supports efforts to counter the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz with a blockade of the blockade. In practice, this absurd approach knowingly risks committing the United States to a prolonged and open-ended military presence in the Middle East. That is the kind of measured advice the president is receiving, which is not particularly reassuring.

One of the most underappreciated factors holding President Trump back is the failure of his State Department and the ineffective performance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Instead of having a strong and engaged diplomat addressing these issues directly, there appears to be a lack of seriousness and focus at the top. And while Trump is responsible for much of the uncertainty in regards to international relations, the fact that he is without world class diplomatic leadership and organization makes it easy to understand why U.S. statecraft has struggled so significantly.

A final contributing element influencing the situation, while not primary but still important, is Trump’s current relationship with Congress. Within his own party, it is apparent that he does not have full control, making meaningful domestic wins difficult to achieve. At the same time, Democrats, who typically oppose him in a unified way, have not mounted genuine resistance to war efforts. With limited reliable Republican support in the House and Senate and little meaningful opposition in regards to aggressive foreign policy, Trump has looked outside US borders for visible wins.

Football & Biscuits
Insofar as nuclear weapons and the presidency are concerned, it is critical to understand how the system works so that we can properly ascertain the validity of related rumors. The President of the United States, whether it is Donald Trump now or any post-WWII president before him, has had the unilateral authority to use nuclear weapons and to do so within a very short timeframe. The system was intentionally designed for speed in the event of a major attack, not for deliberation that could delay a response.

To facilitate this, the president is accompanied at all times by what is commonly referred to as the nuclear football, a mobile command center that enables him to authorize such an action.

When a president wants to order a nuclear strike, he must provide a set of authentication codes, often referred to as the “biscuit.” These codes are checked against secure systems within the Department of War. Once the order is issued and the president’s identity is verified, there are no mechanisms to stop it.

Given that structure, it is difficult to accept claims that General Caine genuinely prevented Trump from getting Iranian nuclear codes. The fact of the matter is Trump already has them. While it is possible that an interaction between Trump and Caine that involved nuclear rhetoric occurred, there certainly was never a serious point of intervention. President Trump can initiate such a decision rapidly, without informing General Caine, and the system is not built to allow others to block it once that process begins.

That is what makes this current situation with Iran so dangerous. We are living in a world where the decision to engage in nuclear war may come down to one person, and once that decision is made, there are no immediate mechanisms that can prevent it from moving forward. If a president opts to go down that path, the system is structured in a way that allows it to happen quickly and without the kind of intervention that many assume exists.

Why Didn’t Trump Listen To Warnings Regarding Iran?
If there is one decision that truly stands out as a departure from Trump’s established character, it is his choice to engage in an unprovoked foreign war with Iran at the urging of another nation in the Middle East, with no clear or tangible benefit to the United States, the Republican Party, or his own legacy. Throughout his career, Trump has been a master at harnessing a populist agenda and has been notably resistant to the kind of interventionist policies that defined prior administrations. That is precisely what makes this shift so striking. It is not only troubling from a national and military strategic standpoint, but also difficult to justify from a political one. Given how out of character it is, it becomes even more critical to understand how and why this decision was made.

Taking into account the magnitude of President Trump’s actions in regards to Iran and the historical importance of having an accurate record and understanding of what occurred, I have spoken with multiple individuals who are intimately familiar with the internal dynamics of the Trump administration at the highest levels. The consistent theme across those sources is that President Trump’s thinking was heavily shaped by prior kinetic outcomes that occurred during his 2^nd term.

These earlier operations, including the initial twelve-day war with Iran and the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, were both met with considerable internal resistance. While the full list of dissenting voices is not entirely clear, it is reasonable to assume that figures such as Vice President Vance, DNI Gabbard, and then Director of the National Counter Terrorism Center Joe Kent were strongly opposed to those moves. Despite their pushback, President Trump moved forward, and in his view, both operations were highly successful and relatively easy.

Those particular outcomes appear to have created a mindset in which earlier skepticism was not just dismissed, but seen as having been proven wrong. When Israeli officials presented the case for the decapitation strategy that eventually occurred in late February 2026, it was situated through that paradigm. The argument was not just about the intelligence itself, but about precedent set by the prior naysayers. The same people who had expressed doubt before were positioned as being wrong then, and therefore should not be listened to now. And Trump, unfortunately, bought into that logic.

This framing played an enormous role in shaping Trump’s willingness to move forward. The decision to attack Iran in late February 2026 was not made in isolation, nor was it purely reactive. It was influenced by a pattern of prior decisions, perceived successes, and a growing tendency to discount internal opposition in favor of aggressive action, even when the stakes were far higher.

Conclusion
Ultimately, the situation the United States finds itself in with Iran cannot be adequately explained by any single cause. It is not just about nuclear weapons, personality, or mental fitness. It is the result of long-standing behavioral patterns, internal dynamics within the administration, coercion by the military and intelligence apparatus, pressure from foreign actors, and a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

And while it may be tempting to simplify this situation by attributing it to claims of a cognitive collapse on the part of President Trump, doing so ignores the far more complex set of factors that have led to where we are today.

And with that, I hope that I’ve helped you to Make Sense of the Madness.

As I conclude, I would like to thank everyone for your continued support and readership. I am especially grateful to Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris for inviting me to participate in the conversation.

Until next time,

Jon Kurpis

DISCLAIMER: This article reflects only my individual thoughts, opinions, and perspectives. Nothing published here should be interpreted as official communication or correspondence in my capacity as an elected official. The views expressed do not represent the positions of any municipality, governing body, political party, or any other elected official or government entity, or The Duran.

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