Xi's Red Line
How Beijing’s Taiwan Warning to Trump Signaled a Historic Shift in Global Power Dynamics
The Xi-Trump Summit was momentous in ways that no-one is saying. It was the second time Trump was given a Cease-and-Desist Demand, this time backed by an implicit warning of Great Power armed conflict, in a period of just over 2 weeks.
Here is the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s official translation of the readout which sets out XI’s demand:
“President Xi stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy. “Taiwan independence” and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water. Safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the U.S. The U.S. side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.”
It is the word ‘must‘ which stands out. For the first time that I can remember, certainly since the end of the Cold War, the leader of another country is telling the United States what it ‘must‘ do.
The US often talks in this way to other countries. It does not expect to be talked to in that way. The Chinese President has however just done precisely that. Moreover, as the photo attached to the Chinese readout makes clear, this was said by the Chinese President to the US President not in a private conversation, where they were the only ones present with translators, but during the full plenary meeting with the entire US delegation present.
The word ‘must’ is backed by a clear threat of armed conflict. How else to interpret words like ‘clashes and conflicts’, which might put the entire relationship in ‘great jeopardy’?
XI also made clear that for China Taiwan is the paramount issue, overriding all others. Questions of trade, technology, rare earths, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz etc. are secondary. No doubt it was precisely for this reason that China, so as not to dilute the message, declined to enter substantive discussions on these secondary issues.
In other words, China cannot be bribed or bullied or bought or frightened into changing its stance on Taiwan. It may be that the words in the Chinese language original are softer. It is the Chinese Foreign Ministry however that translated them in this way. I do not believe that Foreign Ministry’s translators do not understand the force and weight these words in English carry.
The Chinese, as they always do, were careful afterwards to soften the pill, hosting Trump in a banquet in the Great Hall of the People and giving him tours of the Temple of Heaven and of Zhongnanhai.
That, however, does not soften the impact of the words. On the contrary, it makes the warning starker still. The fact the Chinese gave Trump nothing on any other matter - Boeings, trade, rare earths, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz etc. - underlines the point.
This is the second time a Great Power leader has given the US President a warning of this kind in the space of just over 2 weeks. The previous such warnings were given by Putin on 29th April when he warned Trump over the phone not to attack Iran again and gave Trump a further warning of the overwhelming retaliatory action Russia would take against Central Kiev if the Victory Day Parade in Moscow on 9th May were attacked.
The fact Trump is now repeatedly getting warnings like this from Great Power leaders shows that China and Russia consider him a reckless leader barely under control who cannot be trusted. Certainly, the Chinese, after seeing how he has acted in the last few months against Venezuela, Cuba and Iran, and perhaps against Russia in connection with the Valdai attack, don’t trust him on Taiwan. Thus, the decision to give him the warning. It also shows the change which has taken place in the global balance of power. Other Great Powers now feel able to make peremptory demands to the US dictating how it should behave over issues like Taiwan.
Previously it was the US alone which did that.
Thank you for your insightful analysis! I really appreciate the concise way in which you made this important point.
Sadly, Trumples has classic dementia and is unable to hear anything originating out side of the space twixt his own ears, although therein is the great void , devoid of being and feeling whatsoevermore,
I consider dementia, loosely defined. , as the pinnacle achievement of a lifetime of lies to oneself and all others....
Hence he himself believes he always wins at golf, while we know reliably he always cheats, steals, lies, and kills